Convergence Conversation

The Future of Broadcast - Conversation Starters

Convergence Conversation event -
The Future of Broadcast
25th Feb 2010 

Conversation starters for the last Convergence Conversation, food for thought....

This is a set of selected figures for various aspects of the television market, covering global and UK markets, and spanning devices and digital platforms, culled from a diverse set of published and presented sources. They are shared here not as a set of definitive answers, but rather as a starting point for thinking about the topic of our Convergence Conversation.

Global TV Trends

• 2 billion TV screens worldwide, average 187 mins /day of TV watching (IBC 2009)
• 800 million secondary devices/ screens across the world (IBC 2009)
• Changing aggregator market à what is the channel’s value-add?
  -    Walmart buys Vudu
  -     Apple, Microsoft and Sony offer streaming movies. 
• Time-shifting - what is the future of scheduled / linear TV?
  -     Broadband subscribers to reach 567 million by 2011 (In-Stat)
  -     Broadband is recognized as a fundamental right in Finland 
  -     26.9 million IPTV subscribers (July 2009), expected to reach 103 million in 2011, with highest revenue per subscriber from Western Europe & North America (ABI)
  -     By 2011, TV viewers will be spending $4.2 billion on VoD services (PWC)
  
• Internet TV 
  -     1% of all TV viewing delivered by the internet today (IBC 2009) 
  -     By 2011, 25% of media will be consumed online (Yankee Group)
  -     YouTube has 98 million users on its core site, 120 million users for video (IBC 2009
  -     Hulu has 38 m video users (IBC 2009)
  -     Olympics live online: Athens 500 hours, Beijing 2700 hours, London 100% coverage
  -     YouTube awarded global rights for live streaming IPL 2010 matches
• Mobile TV
  -     China 450 million mobile phones; Chinese mobile games industry shows 70% YoY growth to $1.5 billion in 3 years (1/6 of the TV market) 
  -     5.6 billion global mobile connections by 2013
  -     By 2011, mobile entertainment market will reach $76 billion (Juniper Research, 2007); revised to $ 64 billion by 2012, in 2008. 
  -     By 2012, global mobile TV subscribers to reach 462 million (ABI)
  -     By 2012, broadcast TV could reap an additional $2B annual revenue by delivering content to mobiles
• Increasing value of sports and live events on TV 
  -     $1 billion for 10 year IPL rights
  -     EPL – earns over £2.7 billion between 2007-2010
• Game-changers
  -     In 2010, Sky to start serving ads from set-top boxes, changing existing ad models
  -     By 2011, HDTV units installed to reach 151 million. By 2012, 197 m HD TV homes, 16% of total TV market (Informa). 
  -     By 2013, 60% of HDTVs will connect to the Internet. 
• Gaming
  -     By 2011, installed base for Playstation 3 to reach 38.4 million units, and for Wii, 37.7 million units (iSuppli)

TV Trends, UK

• Trending towards 2TVs per TV household, 1.7 by 2013 (UK) (Screen Digest)
• 30% of homes in the UK have some means of catch up
• 50% of home TV access will be digital by 2012 and 70% those will be paying for digital TV 
• TV ad revenues expected to fall by £198m, or 6%, in 2009; ITV ad revenue down 16%
• 23.5% ad budget on online, compared to 21.9% on TV (2009)
• Sky+HD 1.3 million customers. Opening HD Box to broadband content in 2010.
• 49% Pay-TV buyers - Cable, DTH, etc. 12.5m homes

TV Market / Advertising Trends

• 70% of world economies were in recession in 2009
• Global TV ad revenue down-turn 8.5%, Spain down 28%, US down 15%
• Ad spend on most sectors down except for online; Europe online ad spend to grow 7.6% in 2010, 15% in 2011, against general decline
• 2009: UK TV subscription revenue (£ 4.465m) exceeds advertising revenue (£ 3.020m) for the first time 
• 23 flavours of iPlayer (being ported to consumer electronics)
• By 2011, global market for ad-supported mobile messaging will be $12 billion; podcasting will generate $400 million from ads

Digital Radio

• Digital Radio still only 20% of total Radio listening figures (Guardian 2010)
• Potential delays in the Digital Switchover targets