Convergence Conversation

Let's look forward 10 years.

We've all got augmented reality browsers on our handsets, or perhaps our 4G-connected sunglasses. They can overlay all sorts of data and images onto our field of view.

There's a plethora of micropayment systems available, accessible via APIs to any developer with the right tools.

There are open and closed appstores. Any app you can imagine is available for unlocked devices.

Operators are starting to monetise contextual advertising - there are digital posters, sponsorship of content, location-based coupons.

And then there's the sudden backlash.

"You can't use my eyes for free"
"My visual cortex isn't a dumb pipe"
"I spend lots of money on contact lenses & eyetests"
"Let's prioritise certain aspects of our visual input"
"We should charge advertisers for access to our retinas"

Until, finally, the inevitable: More...

This post is more of a question than an answer.

Many larger buildings (airports, shopping malls etc) have various forms of indoor coverage - active and passive distributed antenna systems (DAS), in particular. These usually involve connecting small base stations - often from multiple network operators - to a network of antennas, splitters and other paraphernalia around the building.

All of which is fine.... until we get to technologies like LTE and some variants of WiMAX and HSPA+, which use MIMO technology. Multiple-in, multiple-out technology uses a number of antennas.

I've recently asked a few people the question "So, how does MIMO work with DAS systems installed historically in large buildings?"

The usual response has been "Errr...... More...

In recent months, I've noticed an interesting misconception.

Some observers - notably from North America - seem to be under the impression that netbooks are, by default, mobile-connected. And, in particular, that they are major contributors to 3G data traffic.

As far as I know, this is not really true. Yes, in the US (and, I think, Japan), a fairly decent proportion of netbooks are sold through mobile carrier channels, with embedded or bundled 3G modems, usually on monthly plans.

Elsewhere, although that model exists, it is far from the most important. The majority of netbooks are sold through ordinary PC retail, corporate or online channels. More...

... I'm not going, so please don't bother inviting me to things there, as I won't be replying.

Thanks.

A lot of my meetings at MWC two weeks ago were about managing mobile broadband traffic - by offload, by compression, by policy and various other means.

There is a total lack of agreement on where the emphasis should be. Everyone has a solution - and it's far from obvious that they are not pulling in opposite directions. Dump most traffic to WiFi, and it becomes much harder to justify restrictive policies when the phone is "on net". Offer "premium" or "platinum" connectivity - and get let down by poor coverage. Put femtocells in place - and then try to distinguish femto vs. macro traffic in the policy engine, because throttling someone's 3G access *on their own cell & broadband* is a recipe for disaster. More...

I've long been deeply skeptical about the notion that phones would displace PCs (I'm including Macs here) as the principal platform for computing and Internet access. In particular, I always try to bust the myth that "the next billion Internet users will first see the net on a handset" - a catchy assertion, but one backed up by zero evidence or clear rationale. I've been similarly unconvinced by Nokia's rhetoric about its smartphones being "mobile computers".

Yes, an increasing number of quick computing/Internet tasks are done on smartphones - checking email or Facebook, using a navigation app, jotting down your expenses, writing short blog posts and so on. More...

Quick post on some thoughts from Day 1 here in Barcelona:

As predicted, offload and data traffic management are top-of mind. Too much cheap traffic transiting expensive networks. Yes, people are paying for mobile broadband on laptops & smartphones, but shoehorning gigabytes of Internet-destined data across a network designed for in-house, data-sipping operator-controlled apps is clearly a recipe for disaster. What's striking, though, is that the "offload industry" hasn't yet mapped the various solutions onto a matrix of use cases and deployment scenarios. More...

I've got a pretty hectic schedule in Barcelona, but I'll try and put a few posts up as I go along.

First thing to notice is that the mobile-related advertising around the airport and city is still nowhere near the levels of a few years ago - the recession is obviously still hitting corporate marketing budgets quite hard. This is also reflected by the absence of some "big names" in terms of stands, notably Nokia, which has instead set up shop (more cheaply) around the corner in the ONCE building for meetings and demos.

OK, one churlish comment: while I'm grateful to the GSMA for finally sorting out analyst registration as well as press, they *still* have the ridiculous photo-ID policy on *every* entrance and exit to the Fira grounds. More...

I *did* tell you:

"The number of VoIPo3G users could grow from virtually zero in 2007 to over 250m by the end of 2012"

"It will be the operators themselves which will be mainly responsible for the push towards VoIP being carried over cellular networks"

"About 60m will be using independent or Internet-based solutions – many actually operated in partnership with carriers or retailers"

OK, yes, I missed a few things. At the time I wrote those comments (published in Nov 2007 and researched for the previous 6-9 months), I was still expecting CDMA to go beyond EV-DO and head towards UMB, rather than be usurped by LTE. More...

Interesting time for Telefonica to try and stick the boot into Google about net neutrality, a few days before Eric Schmidt gives a keynote at the 3GSM conference in Barcelona.

Apparently, Telefonica is "considering charging" Google for the bandwidth it apparently uses "for free".

I'd pay very good money to be a fly on the wall during a meeting of the two companies. I wonder how much Google should charge Telefonica to permit its subscribers to access its search & other servers "for free"?

Alierta is playing with fire on this - its customers are more likely to churn ADSL provider than churn from Google Search or YouTube. More...